The Hefei Investigation Team of the National Bureau of Statistics of China released data on November 12. In October 2024, the consumer price index in Hefei rose 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the consumer price index in Hefei fell 0.5% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.

Year-on-year: Fresh vegetable prices rose 42.2%

In October 2024, the consumer price index in Hefei rose 0.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices rose 4.3%, non-food prices fell 0.5%; consumer goods prices rose 0.4%, and service prices rose 0.2%. On average from January to October, the overall level of consumer prices in Hefei rose 0.4% compared with last year.

In October, the prices of food, tobacco and alcohol rose 2.5% year-on-year, affecting the consumer price index (CPI) by about 0.71 percentage points. Among them, the price of fresh vegetables rose by 42.2%, affecting the CPI by about 0.67 percentage points; the price of aquatic products rose by 5.6%, affecting the CPI by about 0.10 percentage points; the price of fresh fruits rose by 5.3%, affecting the CPI by about 0.11 percentage points; the price of pork rose by 15.5%, affecting the CPI by about 0.19 percentage points; the price of eggs fell by 1.5%, affecting the CPI by about 0.01 percentage points.

The prices of the other seven categories rose by four and fell by three year-on-year. Among them, the prices of other goods and services, clothing, medical care, and housing rose by 4.5%, 2.4%, 1.8%, and 0.1% respectively; the prices of transportation and communications, daily necessities and services, and education, culture, and entertainment fell by 5.4%, 0.7%, and 0.2% respectively.

A month-on-month decrease of 0.5%, the decline widened

In October, the consumer price index of residents in Hefei fell by 0.5% month-on-month, and the decline widened by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 2.9%, non-food prices rose by 0.1%; consumer goods prices fell by 0.8%, and service prices remained the same as last month.

In October, food, tobacco and alcohol prices fell by 1.8% month-on-month, affecting the CPI by about 0.54 percentage points. As the weather turned cooler, the supply of leafy vegetables in the province and around Hefei improved, driving the prices of some fresh vegetables to fall. The price of fresh vegetables fell by 2.9%, affecting the CPI by about 0.07 percentage points; pork prices fell by 3.6%, affecting the CPI by about 0.05 percentage points; citrus fruits such as mandarin oranges and grapefruits were in sufficient supply in the market, and the price of fresh fruits fell by 10.3%, affecting the CPI by about 0.24 percentage points.

The prices of the other seven categories rose by five and fell by two month-on-month. Among them, the prices of other goods and services, clothing, housing, education, culture and entertainment, and daily necessities and services rose by 0.9%, 0.6%, 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively; the prices of transportation and communications and medical care fell by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively.

Russia’s GDP grew 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter

Russia’s GDP grew 3.1% year-on-year in the third quarter. In the week of November 11, CPI rose 0.3% week-on-week, and has risen 7.02% so far in 2024.

October CPI rose 8.54% year-on-year, while analysts expected an increase of 8.60%.

October core CPI rose 0.81% month-on-month, while analysts expected an increase of 0.80%.

October core CPI rose 8.18% year-on-year, while analysts expected an increase of 8.21%.

On October 22, the Hubei Provincial Bureau of Statistics and the Hubei Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic operation of Hubei in the first three quarters of this year. According to the unified calculation results of regional GDP, the province’s GDP in the first three quarters was 4165.501 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% at constant prices.

The GDP growth rate led the country further, from 0.8 percentage points in the first half of the year to 0.9 percentage points in the first three quarters.

Data released by the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics on October 23 showed that according to the unified calculation results of regional GDP, Tianjin’s GDP in the first three quarters was 1,267.387 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% at constant prices.

By industry, the added value of the primary industry was 15.719 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; the added value of the secondary industry was 449.331 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 802.337 billion yuan, an increase of 5.4%.

According to the data released by the Shanghai Statistics Bureau on October 23, according to the unified calculation results of regional GDP, Shanghai achieved a regional GDP of 3438.918 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year at constant prices.

Among them, the added value of the primary industry was 6.078 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%; the added value of the secondary industry was 803.281 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 2629.559 billion yuan, an increase of 5.8%.

On October 23, the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of Statistics and the Zhejiang Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics released data. The GDP of Zhejiang in the first three quarters was 6.2618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% at constant prices. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 155.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%; the added value of the secondary industry was 2,567 billion yuan, an increase of 6.3%; the added value of the tertiary industry was 3,539.4 billion yuan, an increase of 4.8%.

Data show that the added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery in the first three quarters increased by 3.7% year-on-year. The output of vegetables increased by 2.5%, and the total output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry meat reached 902,000 tons, an increase of 2.2%. The number of live pigs sold was 7.113 million, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, and the number of live pigs on hand was 6.2 million, an increase of 3.9%, ensuring the stability of the supply of agricultural products.

In terms of industry, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.8% year-on-year. Private enterprises performed outstandingly, with added value increasing by 8.6%, and their contribution rate reached 80%. The automobile, computer communications electronics and textile industries grew by 20.2%, 13.5% and 10.6% respectively. The output of emerging products such as service robots, smartphones and new energy vehicles has also grown significantly.

In the service industry, the added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year. The leasing and business services industry grew by 9.4%, and the information transmission and software services industry grew by 8.5%. In the first eight months, the operating income of service industry enterprises above designated size increased by 8.8%, reflecting the strong recovery momentum of the service industry.

Growth momentum improved in September, China’s third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than expected

Real GDP grew 4.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, slightly stronger than expected (the market consensus is 4.4%). Although the third-quarter GDP growth rate improved to 3.6% on a quarter-on-quarter basis, roughly in line with expectations, the National Bureau of Statistics adjusted the historical data of the quarter-on-quarter growth rate, which pushed the third-quarter year-on-year growth rate to be stronger than expected.

Fixed asset investment and social retail sales growth both exceeded expectations in September, partly due to stronger growth in infrastructure investment and automobile sales. Seasonally adjusted real estate sales and new construction area continued to fall in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, but real estate sales showed some signs of stabilization in September.

Raised China’s GDP growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 to 4.8% and 4.5%

Given the stronger-than-expected year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter, coupled with a series of policy support recently introduced by the government, we expect the fourth-quarter GDP growth rate to rise to 6.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis (seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate), but the year-on-year growth rate will remain at 4.6%. Therefore, we raise our forecast for real GDP growth in 2024 to 4.8% year-on-year, but we expect nominal GDP growth to remain weak at 4.1% year-on-year. Fiscal funding support may continue until early 2025, and credit growth is also expected to rebound.

We raise our forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 to 4.5% (previously 4.0%), and our forecast for nominal GDP growth to 4.8% year-on-year. Assuming other conditions remain unchanged, if the final scale of fiscal policy support, real estate and other easing policies are stronger than expected, this may bring some upside risks to our 2025 economic growth forecast. If the United States significantly increases tariffs on China, we believe that even if domestic policy support is further increased, GDP growth may slow to below 4%.

According to the results of the unified accounting of regional GDP, Changzhou realized a regional Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 1,011.636 billion yuan in 2023, becoming the fifth city in the province with a trillion-dollar GDP. Calculated at constant prices, it increased by 6.8% over the previous year. Divided into three industries, the added value of the primary industry was 17.892 billion yuan, an increase of 3.2%; the added value of the secondary industry was 485.743 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%; and the added value of the tertiary industry was 508.001 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%.

Agricultural production was generally stable, and grain output reached a new high. The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery for the whole year was 30.55 billion yuan.

Industrial production was steady and progressive, and the new energy industry flourished. The annual industrial invoiced sales revenue was 2,163.81 billion yuan, and the manufacturing output value in the new energy field realized 768.07 billion yuan in 2023.

Realize total retail sales of social consumer goods of 305.01 billion yuan in 2023.

Realize the total import and export amount of 318.36 billion yuan in 2023, of which 249.84 billion yuan will be exported and 68.53 billion yuan will be imported.

The annual general public budget revenue will be 68.03 billion yuan.

In 2024, Changzhou will adhere to the general tone of seeking progress amidst stability, closely follow the city positioning of “Internationalized Intelligent Manufacturing City and Yangtze River Delta Central Axis Hub”, deeply promote the development strategy of “532”, continue to consolidate and enhance the economic uptrend, and strive to write a good answer sheet of Chinese-style modernized Changzhou. The city will continue to consolidate and strengthen the economic recovery and upward trend, and strive to write a good answer sheet for the Chinese-style modernization of Changzhou.

On January 31, the Nanjing Bureau of Statistics and the Nanjing Survey team of the National Bureau of Statistics announced the economic operation of Nanjing in 2023.

According to the unified accounting results of the regional GDP, the regional GDP of Nanjing in 2023 will be 1,742.140 billion yuan, calculated at constant prices, an increase of 4.6% over the previous year. The value added of the primary industry was 31.775 billion yuan, up by 1.7 percent; The added value of the secondary industry was 592.9 billion yuan, up by 2.8%; The added value of the tertiary industry was 1,117.465 billion yuan, up by 5.6%. The added value structure of the three industries is 1.8:34.0:64.2.

In the first three quarters of 2023, the regional GDP of Nanjing reached 1,270.375 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year.

In 2023, the city’s industrial added value above designated size increased by 3.6% year-on-year, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over 2022. Mining grew 1.8 per cent, manufacturing 3.4 per cent and electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply 7.5 per cent. Among the 37 industrial categories listed, the output value growth of 18 industries rebounded from the previous three quarters, and the recovery surface reached 48.6%. Among the top ten industries in terms of output value, the output value of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing and special equipment manufacturing increased by 10.6% and 7.5%, respectively, and the growth rate of computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing, oil, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous three quarters. High-tech products showed good growth, with the output of integrated circuits, industrial robots and new energy vehicles up 61.6%, 27.6% and 7.2%, respectively.

In 2023, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the city reached 820.07 billion yuan, an increase of 4.7% over the same period last year, and an increase of 5.5 percentage points over 2022. Among them, the total retail sales of consumer goods above designated size reached 482.639 billion yuan, up by 1.7% year-on-year. In terms of commodity categories, automobile consumption demand was effectively released, and the retail sales of limited new energy vehicles increased by 10.8%, driving the growth of limited social zero by 0.7 percentage points; Investment commodities grew faster, and the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by 17.0%, driving the growth of retail sales by 0.5 percentage points. With the comprehensive normal operation of the economy and society, the cultural and tourism market continued to be hot, the city’s contact consumption significantly recovered, and the income of limited catering increased by 20.5% year-on-year, driving the zero growth of limited social media by 1.3 percentage points.

In 2023, the city completed 576.364 billion yuan of fixed asset investment, down 1.9% year-on-year. By sector, industrial investment increased by 1.5%, and investment in real estate development decreased by 0.2%. The investment structure continued to improve, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.0% year-on-year, 10.9 percentage points higher than total fixed asset investment. Among them, investment in the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 49.9 percent, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 38.6 percent, and pharmaceutical manufacturing increased by 15.3 percent.

In 2023, the city achieved a total import and export volume of 565.994 billion yuan, down 9.3% year-on-year. Among them, the total export value was 333.312 billion yuan, down by 11.8%; Imports totaled 232.682 billion yuan, down 5.6%. The export structure continued to optimize, the proportion of trade to emerging markets continued to increase, and the export of new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, solar cells and other “new three” increased by 21.2%. In 2023, the city’s actual use of foreign capital of 4.94 billion US dollars, an increase of 1.9%.

In 2023, the per capita disposable income of all residents will be 72,112 yuan, an increase of 4.5 percent year on year. By permanent residence, the per capita disposable income of urban residents was 79,858 yuan, up by 4.2%; The per capita disposable income of rural residents was 36,789 yuan, up by 6.1 percent. The per capita disposable income ratio of urban and rural residents narrowed from 2.21:1 in the previous year to 2.17:1, narrowing the urban-rural income gap for 11 consecutive years.